Methodical approaches to assessment of economic efficiency of investments into development of tourist traffic by rail

Abstract

Purpose. Development of methodical approaches to assessment of economic efficiency of investments on access gained to the development of tourist traffic by rail and rail tourism. Method. Use a systematic approach and the general scientific and special methods of research: scientific abstraction, analysis and synthesis, mathematical statistics, project analysis, financial and howl mathematics, statistical tests, assessment of economic efficiency of investments, qualitative and respectively quantitative assessment of the level of risk. Now in Ukraine there are few normative instruments in the field of evaluation of economic efficiency of investments. These regulations-reflect a certain methodological tools regarding the structure of forecast cash flows, identify their components, calculation of the main indicators of economic efficiency of investments taking into account the time factor, however, little attention is paid to quantitative estimation of risks of investment project and taken into account in determining its economic efficiency. Results. It proves the expediency of the accounting of level of risk by adjusting the discount rate for which the work proposed appropriate methodological approaches. When forecasting the cash flows of the scenarios proposed to account for the balance of the projected revenue from the local-delivery of travel services in the framework of the investment project with predicted costs-consumers of the respective services. Quantitative assessment of the risk level of the investment project is carried out on the basis of the formation scenarios of its realization with the help of economic-statistical methods. Indicator of the level of project risk is the standard deviation of the internal rate of yield on the scenarios. The discount rate of the investment project is determined based on the communication cost of capital with the risk level. Scientific innovation. Received further development: methodical approaches to forecasting cash flows for investment projects aimed at the development of railway tourism, which, unlike existing ones, provide balance projections-projected income from provision of tourist services with projected costs to consumers of the corresponding services; methodical approaches to an estimation of economic efficiency of investment projects taking into account risks, which, unlike the existing, integrate the approaches based on higher discount rates on the risk premium, and approaches the definition of the indices as expected. Practical significance. This can improve the accuracy of forecasting cash flows according to scenarios of the investment project implementation and increase reliability of evaluation of economic efficiency of investment projects.